I hope you had a safe and enjoyable holiday season. For the first time since COVID we were able to have our entire family together, including the Australians, it was very nice. I hope yours was as enjoyable. The top news stories of the year were the rapid rise of interest rates effectively slowing inflation without crashing the economy:
1) The collapse of the crypto exchange FTX the conviction and jailing of its founder.: 2) push back on the Woke movement whose broad world view is that there are only the oppressed and the oppressor with the latter being vilified with the presidents of Harvard and Penn resigning; 3) COVID officially ending; 4) a Chinese spy balloon being shot down after it flew over the US
5) Taylor Swift concerts setting off Richter scales; and finally, 6) unfortunately, yet another war and add to this, Open AI going from unknown to an estimated 1.6 billion visitors and it was quite a year! Of these I think the expansion of AI will be an enormous event. I remember a speech Bill Gates gave before the internet was to be found anywhere, except a few universities and the government, saying it was going to change the world. I had no idea how big a change it would be; I suspect the AI expansion will have the same effect.
The broad Morningstar Index finished the year up an amazing 26.43% with 12.08% of that in the last 3 months. With a few exceptions, most of the market pundits predicted another year like 2022 (-19.43) and a recession. In hindsight, of course they were wrong!! This is yet another lesson on the importance of staying invested when all you see and hear about is “gloom and doom”. We do our best to keep you in good long-term investment strategies that are appropriate for you. The rapid rise of interest rates bringing down inflation was a good and positive thing, however, unfortunately it does not reverse inflation, so expect higher prices going forward. Most of the above pundits mentioned above are now saying we should have a soft landing and they (Federal Reserve) will likely lower rates this year. I am hopeful they are right, but I am in the camp of higher interest rates for a longer, rather than shorter time. Inflation is a stubborn thing: interestingly, if you remove housing, inflation is running below the Feds target of 2%. However, many things are in place to have the soft-landing we hope for, among them being the multiplicity of jobs!! The jobs report is excellent, but the biggest gains came from government hiring, thereby helping the economy now but not in the long term as our tax dollars fund such hiring. The stimulus and COVID checks will wear off in the next few months; then we should see how strong the economy actually is and if corporate profits can continue to grow. What does all this mean? Do your best to find good well-run companies and hold on; it has worked very well throughout my career which now spans a very long time.
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Willis Ashby, President and CFP®
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Sources - WSJ, Morningstar, First Trust, Zacks, Forbes, The Economist