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4Q 2023 Newsletter
Willis Ashby • October 5, 2023

After the bruising market in 2022 where the broad index was down 19.43%, we are in a better place. Year to date the Morningstar broad index is up 12.81% but down 3.19% for the quarter. That said, we have a lot to keep our eyes on. On the positive side, consumer spending is remaining robust, and the Biden administration passed their TRILLION-dollar spending bill, corporate profits are slowing but still positive, unemployment is a low 3.6% and the Fed again passed on raising interest rates.

After the bruising market in 2022 where the broad index was down 19.43%, we are in a better place. Year to date the Morningstar broad index is up 12.81% but down 3.19% for the quarter. That said, we have a lot to keep our eyes on. On the positive side, consumer spending is remaining robust, and the Biden administration passed their TRILLION-dollar spending bill, corporate profits are slowing but still positive, unemployment is a low 3.6% and the Fed again passed on raising interest rates. All this means that we may have an economic “soft landing” (i.e., avoid a recession). On the other side of the coin, interest rates are up and may go higher. Inflation has come down but is still well above the Fed's target of 2%. Add to this the concern over the budget deficit and you have a mixed signal on where the markets are going. Putting it all together I am hopeful for a potentially rough but positive overall market. Why do I think this? For the first time in a decade, we can earn interest in the bond market. If we look back on our accounts, you will notice that the bond portion of the accounts made almost nothing. This has meant that we have lived and died on the equities in our accounts. We now can offset declines in stocks with the higher returns we can now earn on the “safe” part of our portfolios. If interest rates drop, we can get bond appreciation, another positive.  


The market usually prices itself, trying to predict the next 6 months in advance. Given what just happened as I write this, we have a new issue to deal with. A group of Republicans have ousted their own speaker of the house. Welcome to politics and making sausage! They are fuming about two things: the deficit, and the border issue. The just passed trillion-dollar spending bill (mentioned above) will push our deficit north of $1.7 trillion for the fiscal year. Entitlement spending is grabbing increasingly more of the federal budget and must be trimmed. However, once elected, politicians like the rewards that come with the office and, even though they know we have a problem, will not fix it because they will be voted from office if they do. Most will be long gone when it all comes crashing down! The second issue with the same solving issue is a for a fix is the border. I have family who live less than 90 miles from Mexico and what we are seeing in the news is not a good illustration of the problems we have; they are massive and will add to the annual deficit, among other problems. I find it interesting that the sanctuary cities are now changing their tune. It is a mess! So how does all this matter to the markets? The ousting of the Speaker of the House was about the deficit fight as mentioned. We are now 45 days or so from another government shutdown. The markets do not like unpredictability or large budget deficits. It is impossible to predict the outcomes. But I relearned something that is easy to forget sometimes. We are investors and prices will fall, drop, rise, and fall! In January of this year, everyone I know was fearful and did not want to get in or buy. We were all wrong. Think long term and things will be fine! 


I want to also cover the Schwab conversion in this letter. The TD accounts have moved over to Schwab and the few issues we have had with the conversion are being fixed as they pop up. Kathy was prescient and is to be given extra kudos for her understanding of the conversion, and the potential pitfalls, RMDs being just one of the issues she has caught. The calculations did not transfer, but fear not, Kathy thought of it ahead of time and we have spreadsheets with the missing data. 


You will receive two statements for September. One from TD and one from Schwab. It should show the positions moving from TD, thus showing an ending balance of zero, and one from Schwab showing the positions received from TD. We expect there to be cases where interest earned, or dividends received but not paid at conversion, will flow into your old TD “accounts” and will then be automatically swept into the Schwab accounts. From our perspective we are learning the Schwab systems and are mostly up to speed on them. Bear with us as we work through the processes and forms. We are here and if you have any questions or concerns, please let us know. Nick, Keith, Alison, and I will as always keep our eyes on the market and make the best decisions we can. 

 

Willis Ashby CFP, President 

 

 

By Willis Ashby January 14, 2025
Happy New Year! We hope you had a wonderful holiday season and wish you prosperity, good friends, and good health for 2025 and beyond. We are pleased to report that the broad Morningstar index increased by 24.09% for the year and 2.57% in the fourth quarter. The "growth" segment of the market, particularly companies like Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla, has been a major contributor to this performance. Together, these seven companies are valued at approximately $17.92 trillion, which represents around 44.80% of the S&P 500. Their performance remains a significant driver of broader market trends. Several key events have recently influenced the financial landscape: The post-election “Trump Rally.” Bitcoin's significant rise, recently reaching around $100,000. Potential tariffs and their uncertain effects. Government debt interest payments surpassing defense spending, ~$1 trillion vs ~800 billion respectively. A notable increase in government employment in 2023, with 709,000 jobs added, a jump from 299,000 in 2022 and 392,000 in 2021 (source: www.bls.gov). The establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The full impact of these events is still unfolding, but potential risks to market stability include tariffs, government debt, and the new DOGE department. While tariffs could have far-reaching effects, it is important to recognize that the policies discussed during campaigns may not align with actual implementation. Government debt may not pose an immediate concern, but over time, the bond market may react to the growing debt load, leading to necessary spending cuts. Though such measures could be painful in the short term, they may be necessary for long-term economic stability. The potential impact of the Department of Government Efficiency remains unclear. Elon Musk’s restructuring of Twitter (now X), which resulted in the elimination of thousands of jobs, has been seen as an effort to increase efficiency. Historically, the closure of government departments has been rare; the only significant example occurred during the Carter administration, when Alfred Kahn successfully dismantled the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB), leading to lower airline prices and more travel options. Overall, we expect the companies we monitor and invest in to remain profitable. Despite potential disruptions, 2025 is likely to be another positive year for the market, though some volatility or "jolts" along the way should be anticipated. Enclosed is our annual privacy notice (mailed letters). Additionally, if you would like a copy of our ADV, it is available on our website or can be sent upon request. Lastly, I want to express my gratitude to Kathy, Nick, Keith, and Alison for their excellent work. Please feel free to contact us with any questions or concerns. We remain committed to providing the best financial advice to support your well-being. Sincerely, Willis Ashby, President Integra Financial, Inc. 5105 DTC Parkway, Suite 316 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 303-220-5525 / 303-689-0973 FAX Bureau of Labor Statics, Wall Street Journal, 1 st Trust, Morningstar, Zacks Research, Co-pilot &/or ChatGPT
By Willis Ashby October 14, 2024
I hope you had a wonderful summer and are enjoying weather similar to what we have in Colorado. The Morningstar broad index rose by 3.59% this quarter and is up 19.65% for the year. In a long-anticipated shift, value stocks—such as Costco, Comcast, and Home Depot—have outperformed growth stocks like Google and Amazon. The growth sector, which has led the market for so long, is now seeing stretched valuations and limits to growth, making the value side increasingly appealing for investment. As we focus more on value investing, it’s rewarding to maintain a diversified portfolio that includes both value and growth stocks. Reflecting on the past year and beyond, I’ve been reminded that “the market climbs a wall of worry.” It can be challenging to invest when headline news seems discouraging, but I’ve witnessed this pattern often enough to firmly believe that the best strategy is to enter the market and stay invested. Many of you who have been with us for a decade or more can attest to the benefits of this approach. Viewing investments through a long-term lens—thinking in decades rather than years—helps manage the inevitable market fluctuations. I don’t want to come across as overly optimistic, but there are positive signs: inflation is declining, incomes are rising, and personal savings rates are up. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is also on the rise, with many corporations exceeding their earnings expectations. Historically, during periods of high inflation, like the Carter years, the stock market has proven to be an effective hedge against rising costs. As expenses—wages, goods, and taxes—increase, the value of stocks tends to follow suit, as corporations pass these costs onto consumers while striving to maintain their profit margins. Nick, Keith, Alison, and I are closely monitoring various factors that could impact the market and your portfolios. As always, we’re keeping an eye on the overall economy, particularly monthly employment numbers. Currently, over 60% of new jobs are in government or government-related sectors, which is less favorable than if the majority were in the private sector. The Federal Reserve has recently lowered the Fed Funds Rate by half a percent, a move prompted by falling inflation that appears to be trending toward the target rate of 2%. This reduction has been celebrated on Wall Street, as it lowers the cost of borrowing, benefiting both businesses and the government. Another trend we’re addressing is the stock-to-bond ratio in your portfolios. The stock side has grown much faster than bonds, for example, an initial 50/50 allocation is now closer to 60% stocks and 40% bonds. To rebalance your portfolio, we will sell some stocks and buy bonds to return to the desired ratio that best suits your investment strategy. In closing, I want to emphasize the importance of being vigilant with your online activities. The number of malicious actors attempting to hack personal information is increasing daily, so please take precautions. If you have any questions or if your financial situation changes, don’t hesitate to reach out. Alison, Keith, Nick, Kathy, and I appreciate your trust and are here to support you. Willis Willis Ashby, President Integra Financial, Inc. 5105 DTC Parkway, Suite 316 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 303-220-5525 / 303-689-0973 FAX
By Keith Fevurly August 1, 2024
Salary-reduction-type retirement plans have, for some time, permitted so-called “hardship distributions” or “hardship withdrawals” prior to a participant’s retirement date. Salary-reduction-type plans include Section 401(k) plans available to for-profit employees, 403(b) plans for not-for-profit employees, and 457(b) plans for State and local government employees. Generally, such distributions are includible in a participant’s income and are subject to an “early distribution 10 percent penalty”, unless an exception applies.
By Keith Fevurly August 1, 2024
Inheriting Traditional or Roth IRA Proceeds:
By Keith Fevurly August 1, 2024
Some points to consider: 1) Likely the biggest distribution question that a 401(k) participant asks is: should I rollover the proceeds to an IRA or retain it within the 401(k), assuming the plan sponsor allows that? There is no certain answer to this question, although in the majority of situations, it is preferable to roll the proceeds because of participant control of the account. See Willis, Nick, or Keith to begin the paperwork for a Rollover IRA.
By Nick Weisert July 17, 2024
Greetings!  We hope this letter finds you well. As you head into the heart of summer, we hope you're ready to make the most of the season. Whether you're planning a relaxing vacation, enjoying outdoor activities, or simply basking in the summer sun, we wish you a season filled with joy and memorable moments. Let's dive into the latest updates from the financial world.
By Willis Ashby April 8, 2024
As usual I hope this finds you well. As we welcome spring and having just finished the first quarter, things look good. The broad Morningstar index was up 10.24% through 03-31-24. The large cap companies led the way up 11.08% and the small caps up 5.69%. The S&P 500 experienced 22 “all-time highs” with less than 2% drops in-between. Amazing!
By Willis Ashby January 11, 2024
I hope you had a safe and enjoyable holiday season. For the first time since COVID we were able to have our entire family together, including the Australians, it was very nice. I hope yours was as enjoyable. The top news stories of the year were the rapid rise of interest rates effectively slowing inflation without crashing the economy:
By Willis Ashby July 10, 2023
I hope you had a wonderful 4th of July celebration. We have a reading of the Declaration at our gatherings, it is always amazing to me to hear how many people under 30 saying they didn’t understand what was declared and to whom it was sent. After the declaration we (our founders) wrote our Constitution taking the best from the Magna Carta of 1215 and the English Parliament’s Bill of Rights of 1689. We have a lot of issues in our country but when you look at our beginning, it is amazing!
By Willis Ashby April 13, 2023
You cannot say we do not live in interesting times; A past president indicted on criminal charges; bank failures; FTX collapse; and high inflation to mention a few. The Morningstar broad index was up 7.40% for the quarter and YTD. Most of this was the rebounding of the large tech companies which had been crushed at the end of last year.
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