I do not like green eggs and ham. I do not like this market; maybe I should change my name to Sam. The broad Morningstar Index is down 21.28% YTD and down 16.85% this past quarter. It has been 40 years since we have had stocks and bonds drop at the same time. Inflation is the highest it has been since 1981. Fed Chairman Powell has said he is more concerned with inflation than a recession and made clear he will continue to raise rates until inflation is heading back to the stated goal of 2%. Now that I said everything is terrible, let me remind you of other times the market dropped like this in 1932, 1939, 1940, 1962, and 1970, when the market rose an average of 24% the following quarter. Now is a great time to get whipsawed. At some point, investors will believe the market has dropped beyond where it should be, and the turnaround begins. It is especially important not to miss the turnaround.
See the graph below.
With that said, please keep in mind that when we project your long-term returns, it includes these market drops. It is uncomfortable but expected. Statistically, this occurs every 5 years and should be of no surprise. However, sit tight as this too shall pass!
Some of you have asked how raising rates stop inflation. I will use home buying as my example. Most people, when buying a home, determine how much they can afford per month. The interest rate you obtain on your mortgage matters more than you may expect. For example, let us assume you can afford a payment of $3,000.00 per month with an old rate of interest (such as 3% with EXCELLENT credit) using a 30-year mortgage.
In the above scenario, you could previously buy a home with a purchase price of approximately $710,000,00.00. Now, if we move the rate of interest up to 6%, you could only afford a home that costs approximately $500,000.00. The approximate $200,000.00 difference is huge for just a 3-percentage point rise in annual interest rates. As a result, you may likely reconsider your decision to buy and choose to stay out of the market, which will effectually slow the rate of inflation.
As always, if you have any questions or concerns, please write or call. Keith, Nick & I worry about the market for you. If history repeats itself, and I think it will, the market will recover, and our investing methods will prove sound again!
Yours Truly,
Willis Ashby, President