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Q1 2022 Newsletter
Willis Ashby • January 12, 2022

Welcome to the New Year. The Morningstar broad market index was up 25.78% for the year. The largest gains came for the small cap value funds which were up 31.79% and again show how diversification over time helps our returns. We have had another good year of outperformance.


The three things we are now paying attention to are inflation, Omicron, and the federal deficit. As strange as it sounds, from an investing perspective, inflation is not too concerning yet. Historically stocks that have risen with inflation are an excellent hedge. However, if inflation goes on too long, and too high, it does become a problem. If this happens, the historical "cure" is to raise interest rates, and the Fed has indicated they plan several (three) rate hikes this year. Personally, I think we will only see two. The debate last year was, is it temporary or long term? The long term, I think, has won that discussion and is an issue we may need to address later this year. Next is Omicron, as I write this, it appears to have spread very quickly, however in most cases, it seems to present milder, non-life-threatening symptoms. If businesses are shut down, as we were last year, we may need to shift where we place our funds. A poor business environment with rising interest rates is difficult to navigate. You may think just go to cash, however, cash in a high inflation market can be worse than riding a market through a dip. Remember the concept of permanent loss of capital in this regard. The last issue of concern is the federal deficit which eventually will be a problem. Individuals, businesses, AND governments cannot spend more than they bring in forever! Eventually, this becomes a problem. It seems that the trillion dollars plus "Build Back Better" spending bill is mired in the DC quagmire and will not pass as proposed. Instead, we may see nothing or a pared-down version. The proposed programs may have some good aspects, but raising taxes on business while giving tax breaks to high-income earners in high tax states at the expense of Coloradoans is not something I want. Also, I'm fairly sure the market would react poorly.


Looking forward I think the market will continue to rise with inflation, the supply chain issues will slowly resolve, unemployment will keep dropping and, if corporate profits are close to what is expected, it could be yet another good year. I do expect more market volatility though, so be patient with the headline news.


Our Annual Privacy Notice is available for download below. Please know that we do not share or sell any of your information unless it is necessary to invest your accounts, or you direct us to. If you would like our ADV (the document, we file to be a Registered Investment Advisor) let us know and we will get you a copy. It is a great read. (I can't believe I just wrote that). Also, some news. Nick will be taking over more of the operations of the firm, and we are having discussions on his becoming an owner of Integra. I will be going to a three-day workweek. My wife laughed herself silly when I told her about that! However, be assured I will be available if anything pressing comes up. Finally, the office will continue its current days and hours of operation regardless of these changes.


Keith, Nick, & I want to express our thanks to Katie. We had a busier than usual year end, a lot of the companies we work with are short-staffed and the Schwab acquisition of TD made things more trying than usual. Through her persistence, Katie was able to get time-sensitive things done. It was impressive!! Nicely done and Thanks. We are grateful for the trust you have in us, and we will continue to be the best stewards of your and our own money as we can. Thanks for your trust in all of us! 


Download our Annual Privacy Notice Here

By Willis Ashby January 14, 2025
Happy New Year! We hope you had a wonderful holiday season and wish you prosperity, good friends, and good health for 2025 and beyond. We are pleased to report that the broad Morningstar index increased by 24.09% for the year and 2.57% in the fourth quarter. The "growth" segment of the market, particularly companies like Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla, has been a major contributor to this performance. Together, these seven companies are valued at approximately $17.92 trillion, which represents around 44.80% of the S&P 500. Their performance remains a significant driver of broader market trends. Several key events have recently influenced the financial landscape: The post-election “Trump Rally.” Bitcoin's significant rise, recently reaching around $100,000. Potential tariffs and their uncertain effects. Government debt interest payments surpassing defense spending, ~$1 trillion vs ~800 billion respectively. A notable increase in government employment in 2023, with 709,000 jobs added, a jump from 299,000 in 2022 and 392,000 in 2021 (source: www.bls.gov). The establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The full impact of these events is still unfolding, but potential risks to market stability include tariffs, government debt, and the new DOGE department. While tariffs could have far-reaching effects, it is important to recognize that the policies discussed during campaigns may not align with actual implementation. Government debt may not pose an immediate concern, but over time, the bond market may react to the growing debt load, leading to necessary spending cuts. Though such measures could be painful in the short term, they may be necessary for long-term economic stability. The potential impact of the Department of Government Efficiency remains unclear. Elon Musk’s restructuring of Twitter (now X), which resulted in the elimination of thousands of jobs, has been seen as an effort to increase efficiency. Historically, the closure of government departments has been rare; the only significant example occurred during the Carter administration, when Alfred Kahn successfully dismantled the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB), leading to lower airline prices and more travel options. Overall, we expect the companies we monitor and invest in to remain profitable. Despite potential disruptions, 2025 is likely to be another positive year for the market, though some volatility or "jolts" along the way should be anticipated. Enclosed is our annual privacy notice (mailed letters). Additionally, if you would like a copy of our ADV, it is available on our website or can be sent upon request. Lastly, I want to express my gratitude to Kathy, Nick, Keith, and Alison for their excellent work. Please feel free to contact us with any questions or concerns. We remain committed to providing the best financial advice to support your well-being. Sincerely, Willis Ashby, President Integra Financial, Inc. 5105 DTC Parkway, Suite 316 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 303-220-5525 / 303-689-0973 FAX Bureau of Labor Statics, Wall Street Journal, 1 st Trust, Morningstar, Zacks Research, Co-pilot &/or ChatGPT
By Willis Ashby October 14, 2024
I hope you had a wonderful summer and are enjoying weather similar to what we have in Colorado. The Morningstar broad index rose by 3.59% this quarter and is up 19.65% for the year. In a long-anticipated shift, value stocks—such as Costco, Comcast, and Home Depot—have outperformed growth stocks like Google and Amazon. The growth sector, which has led the market for so long, is now seeing stretched valuations and limits to growth, making the value side increasingly appealing for investment. As we focus more on value investing, it’s rewarding to maintain a diversified portfolio that includes both value and growth stocks. Reflecting on the past year and beyond, I’ve been reminded that “the market climbs a wall of worry.” It can be challenging to invest when headline news seems discouraging, but I’ve witnessed this pattern often enough to firmly believe that the best strategy is to enter the market and stay invested. Many of you who have been with us for a decade or more can attest to the benefits of this approach. Viewing investments through a long-term lens—thinking in decades rather than years—helps manage the inevitable market fluctuations. I don’t want to come across as overly optimistic, but there are positive signs: inflation is declining, incomes are rising, and personal savings rates are up. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is also on the rise, with many corporations exceeding their earnings expectations. Historically, during periods of high inflation, like the Carter years, the stock market has proven to be an effective hedge against rising costs. As expenses—wages, goods, and taxes—increase, the value of stocks tends to follow suit, as corporations pass these costs onto consumers while striving to maintain their profit margins. Nick, Keith, Alison, and I are closely monitoring various factors that could impact the market and your portfolios. As always, we’re keeping an eye on the overall economy, particularly monthly employment numbers. Currently, over 60% of new jobs are in government or government-related sectors, which is less favorable than if the majority were in the private sector. The Federal Reserve has recently lowered the Fed Funds Rate by half a percent, a move prompted by falling inflation that appears to be trending toward the target rate of 2%. This reduction has been celebrated on Wall Street, as it lowers the cost of borrowing, benefiting both businesses and the government. Another trend we’re addressing is the stock-to-bond ratio in your portfolios. The stock side has grown much faster than bonds, for example, an initial 50/50 allocation is now closer to 60% stocks and 40% bonds. To rebalance your portfolio, we will sell some stocks and buy bonds to return to the desired ratio that best suits your investment strategy. In closing, I want to emphasize the importance of being vigilant with your online activities. The number of malicious actors attempting to hack personal information is increasing daily, so please take precautions. If you have any questions or if your financial situation changes, don’t hesitate to reach out. Alison, Keith, Nick, Kathy, and I appreciate your trust and are here to support you. Willis Willis Ashby, President Integra Financial, Inc. 5105 DTC Parkway, Suite 316 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 303-220-5525 / 303-689-0973 FAX
By Keith Fevurly August 1, 2024
Salary-reduction-type retirement plans have, for some time, permitted so-called “hardship distributions” or “hardship withdrawals” prior to a participant’s retirement date. Salary-reduction-type plans include Section 401(k) plans available to for-profit employees, 403(b) plans for not-for-profit employees, and 457(b) plans for State and local government employees. Generally, such distributions are includible in a participant’s income and are subject to an “early distribution 10 percent penalty”, unless an exception applies.
By Keith Fevurly August 1, 2024
Inheriting Traditional or Roth IRA Proceeds:
By Keith Fevurly August 1, 2024
Some points to consider: 1) Likely the biggest distribution question that a 401(k) participant asks is: should I rollover the proceeds to an IRA or retain it within the 401(k), assuming the plan sponsor allows that? There is no certain answer to this question, although in the majority of situations, it is preferable to roll the proceeds because of participant control of the account. See Willis, Nick, or Keith to begin the paperwork for a Rollover IRA.
By Nick Weisert July 17, 2024
Greetings!  We hope this letter finds you well. As you head into the heart of summer, we hope you're ready to make the most of the season. Whether you're planning a relaxing vacation, enjoying outdoor activities, or simply basking in the summer sun, we wish you a season filled with joy and memorable moments. Let's dive into the latest updates from the financial world.
By Willis Ashby April 8, 2024
As usual I hope this finds you well. As we welcome spring and having just finished the first quarter, things look good. The broad Morningstar index was up 10.24% through 03-31-24. The large cap companies led the way up 11.08% and the small caps up 5.69%. The S&P 500 experienced 22 “all-time highs” with less than 2% drops in-between. Amazing!
By Willis Ashby January 11, 2024
I hope you had a safe and enjoyable holiday season. For the first time since COVID we were able to have our entire family together, including the Australians, it was very nice. I hope yours was as enjoyable. The top news stories of the year were the rapid rise of interest rates effectively slowing inflation without crashing the economy:
By Willis Ashby October 5, 2023
After the bruising market in 2022 where the broad index was down 19.43%, we are in a better place. Year to date the Morningstar broad index is up 12.81% but down 3.19% for the quarter. That said, we have a lot to keep our eyes on. On the positive side, consumer spending is remaining robust, and the Biden administration passed their TRILLION-dollar spending bill, corporate profits are slowing but still positive, unemployment is a low 3.6% and the Fed again passed on raising interest rates.
By Willis Ashby July 10, 2023
I hope you had a wonderful 4th of July celebration. We have a reading of the Declaration at our gatherings, it is always amazing to me to hear how many people under 30 saying they didn’t understand what was declared and to whom it was sent. After the declaration we (our founders) wrote our Constitution taking the best from the Magna Carta of 1215 and the English Parliament’s Bill of Rights of 1689. We have a lot of issues in our country but when you look at our beginning, it is amazing!
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