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Q3 2021 Newsletter
Nick Weisert • July 1, 2021
 Hello. I hope this letter finds you well and that you were able to enjoy some fun and relaxation with family over the 4th of July. After over a year of uncertainty, stress and often being apart from loved ones, what an amazing and well-deserved turn of events that has us enjoying our time together this summer. Brings a new perspective to Independence Day. 

We started the year hitting 300,000 daily COVID cases on January 8th. A little under six months later the US sits at around 4,000 daily new COVID cases. That’s a 98.6% decrease! Truly a remarkable and welcome relief, particularly for those people dealing with COVID daily like healthcare workers. The US economy, in response, is rolling and in many areas getting close to pre-pandemic levels. TSA screening checkpoints, a measure of airport traffic, are at 80%+ of their pre-pandemic levels. Restaurant traffic is at 94% of pre-pandemic levels, a fact I can anecdotally confirm having gone out to a restaurant, sitting indoors for the first time a couple weeks ago. Who would have thought that a stranger sitting next to you at a restaurant would qualify as a novel experience? All told the US economy is now expected to grow 6.5% this year, the highest growth rate since the 1980’s.  

Similar to the economy, the stock market has experienced solid gains YTD.  Through May, the overall Morningstar US index is up 12%, with value continuing to outpace growth.  It is the 3rd best start to the year for value over the past 34 years.  Despite all this performance, a record amount of cash, ~$4.5 trillion in fact, continues to be on the sidelines in the form of money market funds. A buildup of cash typically happens during recessions.  During the last two recessions (2002 and 2008), those funds were then invested over the following year.  These movements do not change the long-term outlook for stock market performance but can lead to further increases in prices short-term. 


The flip side of the booming recovery coin is, of course, inflation.  Between eager citizens ready to be out and spend, a massive multi-trillion-dollar stimulus over two administrations and materials shortages, we are already seeing many price increases over last year (see chart below).  The question then becomes, is this a temporary “blip” as we recover or is inflation more long-lasting than we would have thought? We do not know with absolute certainty but right now the evidence suggests it is more likely the temporary sort of inflation. 

Taxes are another area we will be keeping a close eye on.  As of yet, there is much debate on taxes, namely increases in tax rates, but no real resolution.  Just last week, G7 countries agreed on a global minimum corporate tax rate of at least 15%.  This is not great news for tech companies that have a large presence in lower tax countries (think Facebook in Ireland).  The Biden administration has put forth a proposal to increase the corporate tax rate to 28%.  The administration has already signaled a willingness to back off the 28% for a more modest increase in the 24-25% range.  What does this mean for investing?  Lower corporate earnings and slower growth, which could affect stock prices.  We will see where this ends up.  On the personal tax side, even more proposals abound including raising the top tax rate back to 39% and a change to capital gains tax for those earning more than $1M per year.  While I am hesitant to speculate where everything ends up, it’s fair to say there is a good deal of pressure on taxes rising.  This could mean a shift in portfolio allocation based on how an asset performs after-tax.  When thinking through your portfolio construction we will continue to take a comprehensive focus on your financial plan; the after-tax consequences of investments will continue to be a major area of focus.


In closing, we would like to wish everyone safe travels and warm wishes this summer.  We continue to appreciate the trust you put in us and are humbled we get to play a small role in your lives.  Take care, we cannot wait to catch up with you, potentially in person, soon!


My best,

Nick Weisert


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Reference Data: Capital Group, Blackrock Investments, First Trust, JP Morgan Investment Management, The Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Morningstar


By Willis Ashby January 14, 2025
Happy New Year! We hope you had a wonderful holiday season and wish you prosperity, good friends, and good health for 2025 and beyond. We are pleased to report that the broad Morningstar index increased by 24.09% for the year and 2.57% in the fourth quarter. The "growth" segment of the market, particularly companies like Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla, has been a major contributor to this performance. Together, these seven companies are valued at approximately $17.92 trillion, which represents around 44.80% of the S&P 500. Their performance remains a significant driver of broader market trends. Several key events have recently influenced the financial landscape: The post-election “Trump Rally.” Bitcoin's significant rise, recently reaching around $100,000. Potential tariffs and their uncertain effects. Government debt interest payments surpassing defense spending, ~$1 trillion vs ~800 billion respectively. A notable increase in government employment in 2023, with 709,000 jobs added, a jump from 299,000 in 2022 and 392,000 in 2021 (source: www.bls.gov). The establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The full impact of these events is still unfolding, but potential risks to market stability include tariffs, government debt, and the new DOGE department. While tariffs could have far-reaching effects, it is important to recognize that the policies discussed during campaigns may not align with actual implementation. Government debt may not pose an immediate concern, but over time, the bond market may react to the growing debt load, leading to necessary spending cuts. Though such measures could be painful in the short term, they may be necessary for long-term economic stability. The potential impact of the Department of Government Efficiency remains unclear. Elon Musk’s restructuring of Twitter (now X), which resulted in the elimination of thousands of jobs, has been seen as an effort to increase efficiency. Historically, the closure of government departments has been rare; the only significant example occurred during the Carter administration, when Alfred Kahn successfully dismantled the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB), leading to lower airline prices and more travel options. Overall, we expect the companies we monitor and invest in to remain profitable. Despite potential disruptions, 2025 is likely to be another positive year for the market, though some volatility or "jolts" along the way should be anticipated. Enclosed is our annual privacy notice (mailed letters). Additionally, if you would like a copy of our ADV, it is available on our website or can be sent upon request. Lastly, I want to express my gratitude to Kathy, Nick, Keith, and Alison for their excellent work. Please feel free to contact us with any questions or concerns. We remain committed to providing the best financial advice to support your well-being. Sincerely, Willis Ashby, President Integra Financial, Inc. 5105 DTC Parkway, Suite 316 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 303-220-5525 / 303-689-0973 FAX Bureau of Labor Statics, Wall Street Journal, 1 st Trust, Morningstar, Zacks Research, Co-pilot &/or ChatGPT
By Willis Ashby October 14, 2024
I hope you had a wonderful summer and are enjoying weather similar to what we have in Colorado. The Morningstar broad index rose by 3.59% this quarter and is up 19.65% for the year. In a long-anticipated shift, value stocks—such as Costco, Comcast, and Home Depot—have outperformed growth stocks like Google and Amazon. The growth sector, which has led the market for so long, is now seeing stretched valuations and limits to growth, making the value side increasingly appealing for investment. As we focus more on value investing, it’s rewarding to maintain a diversified portfolio that includes both value and growth stocks. Reflecting on the past year and beyond, I’ve been reminded that “the market climbs a wall of worry.” It can be challenging to invest when headline news seems discouraging, but I’ve witnessed this pattern often enough to firmly believe that the best strategy is to enter the market and stay invested. Many of you who have been with us for a decade or more can attest to the benefits of this approach. Viewing investments through a long-term lens—thinking in decades rather than years—helps manage the inevitable market fluctuations. I don’t want to come across as overly optimistic, but there are positive signs: inflation is declining, incomes are rising, and personal savings rates are up. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is also on the rise, with many corporations exceeding their earnings expectations. Historically, during periods of high inflation, like the Carter years, the stock market has proven to be an effective hedge against rising costs. As expenses—wages, goods, and taxes—increase, the value of stocks tends to follow suit, as corporations pass these costs onto consumers while striving to maintain their profit margins. Nick, Keith, Alison, and I are closely monitoring various factors that could impact the market and your portfolios. As always, we’re keeping an eye on the overall economy, particularly monthly employment numbers. Currently, over 60% of new jobs are in government or government-related sectors, which is less favorable than if the majority were in the private sector. The Federal Reserve has recently lowered the Fed Funds Rate by half a percent, a move prompted by falling inflation that appears to be trending toward the target rate of 2%. This reduction has been celebrated on Wall Street, as it lowers the cost of borrowing, benefiting both businesses and the government. Another trend we’re addressing is the stock-to-bond ratio in your portfolios. The stock side has grown much faster than bonds, for example, an initial 50/50 allocation is now closer to 60% stocks and 40% bonds. To rebalance your portfolio, we will sell some stocks and buy bonds to return to the desired ratio that best suits your investment strategy. In closing, I want to emphasize the importance of being vigilant with your online activities. The number of malicious actors attempting to hack personal information is increasing daily, so please take precautions. If you have any questions or if your financial situation changes, don’t hesitate to reach out. Alison, Keith, Nick, Kathy, and I appreciate your trust and are here to support you. Willis Willis Ashby, President Integra Financial, Inc. 5105 DTC Parkway, Suite 316 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 303-220-5525 / 303-689-0973 FAX
By Keith Fevurly August 1, 2024
Salary-reduction-type retirement plans have, for some time, permitted so-called “hardship distributions” or “hardship withdrawals” prior to a participant’s retirement date. Salary-reduction-type plans include Section 401(k) plans available to for-profit employees, 403(b) plans for not-for-profit employees, and 457(b) plans for State and local government employees. Generally, such distributions are includible in a participant’s income and are subject to an “early distribution 10 percent penalty”, unless an exception applies.
By Keith Fevurly August 1, 2024
Inheriting Traditional or Roth IRA Proceeds:
By Keith Fevurly August 1, 2024
Some points to consider: 1) Likely the biggest distribution question that a 401(k) participant asks is: should I rollover the proceeds to an IRA or retain it within the 401(k), assuming the plan sponsor allows that? There is no certain answer to this question, although in the majority of situations, it is preferable to roll the proceeds because of participant control of the account. See Willis, Nick, or Keith to begin the paperwork for a Rollover IRA.
By Nick Weisert July 17, 2024
Greetings!  We hope this letter finds you well. As you head into the heart of summer, we hope you're ready to make the most of the season. Whether you're planning a relaxing vacation, enjoying outdoor activities, or simply basking in the summer sun, we wish you a season filled with joy and memorable moments. Let's dive into the latest updates from the financial world.
By Willis Ashby April 8, 2024
As usual I hope this finds you well. As we welcome spring and having just finished the first quarter, things look good. The broad Morningstar index was up 10.24% through 03-31-24. The large cap companies led the way up 11.08% and the small caps up 5.69%. The S&P 500 experienced 22 “all-time highs” with less than 2% drops in-between. Amazing!
By Willis Ashby January 11, 2024
I hope you had a safe and enjoyable holiday season. For the first time since COVID we were able to have our entire family together, including the Australians, it was very nice. I hope yours was as enjoyable. The top news stories of the year were the rapid rise of interest rates effectively slowing inflation without crashing the economy:
By Willis Ashby October 5, 2023
After the bruising market in 2022 where the broad index was down 19.43%, we are in a better place. Year to date the Morningstar broad index is up 12.81% but down 3.19% for the quarter. That said, we have a lot to keep our eyes on. On the positive side, consumer spending is remaining robust, and the Biden administration passed their TRILLION-dollar spending bill, corporate profits are slowing but still positive, unemployment is a low 3.6% and the Fed again passed on raising interest rates.
By Willis Ashby July 10, 2023
I hope you had a wonderful 4th of July celebration. We have a reading of the Declaration at our gatherings, it is always amazing to me to hear how many people under 30 saying they didn’t understand what was declared and to whom it was sent. After the declaration we (our founders) wrote our Constitution taking the best from the Magna Carta of 1215 and the English Parliament’s Bill of Rights of 1689. We have a lot of issues in our country but when you look at our beginning, it is amazing!
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